Southwest monsoon likely to arrive in Kerala on May 31, 2024, says IMD

New Delhi, May 15, 2024- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the southwest monsoon will set in over Kerala on May 31, 2024, with a model error of ± 4 days. This prediction marks the beginning of the rainy season, which is a crucial period for the Indian subcontinent.

The IMD’s operational forecasts for the monsoon onset date have been based on six key predictors, including minimum temperatures over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over Kerala, and various atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Historically, these forecasts have been highly accurate, with only one incorrect prediction in 2015 over the last 19 years.

In recent years, the actual onset dates of the monsoon over Kerala have varied, with 2023 witnessing the onset on June 8, while 2022 saw an earlier onset on May 29. The forecast verification for the last five years is provided in the table below:

|  Year | Actual Onset Date | Forecast Onset Date |

|———-|——————-‐———-|———————————–|

| 2019 | 8th June.                | 6th June 

| 2020 | 1st June.                | 5th June 

| 2021 | 3rd June.                | 31st May 

| 2022 | 29th May.               | 27th May 

| 2023 | 8th June.                | 4th June 

The advance of the southwest monsoon is a critical indicator of the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season in India, bringing much-needed relief from scorching summer temperatures. The onset of the monsoon over Kerala is closely monitored as it significantly impacts agriculture, water resources, and overall weather patterns across the country.